Will uncertainty surrounding the UK government push the Pound lower? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Canadian Dollar rate, despite trading within quite a wide range over the past year is actually flat on an annualised basis, after the Pound has lost quite a lot of value in recent weeks due to mounting pressure on the UK’s Prime Minister.

There are apparently dozens of Conservative MP’s that are prepared to sign a vote of no-confidence against the current PM which is putting pressure on the Pounds value, and recently it’s fallen against the majority of major currency pairs.

At the same time oil has strengthened recently which has boosted the Loonie’s value also, which has accentuated the drop in the GBP to CAD value which was trading over 1.70 earlier in the month.

The rate of inflation fell below the Bank of England’s predictions for the month of October, which has lead many economists to questions whether the BoE was right to hike the rates earlier this month for the first time in 10-years.

Moving forward I think that if inflationary pressures do subside and the PM’s position continues to be questioned I think we may see the Pound soften as the end of the year approaches.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement involving the pair discussed in this blog, do feel free to get in touch if you wish to be updated if there is a spike in the rate.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Oil price drop leads to further weakness for the Canadian Dollar (Daniel Wright)

The Canadian Dollar dropped off a little in trading yesterday, as investors and speculators dropped off some of their bullish bets (in favour of Canadian Dollar strength) due to the drop off in oil prices witnessed yesterday afternoon.

At one point oil prices were down by 2% and although the tight link between the Canadian Dollar and oil prices is not as tight as it has been in recent times it still does have an impact on the price of CAD as we saw over the course of the day.

Canadian Government bond prices were up a tiny bit and as the week progresses we have Canadian manufacturing figures due out tomorrow and key inflation data out on Friday.

Analysts are expecting to see another hike in interest rates from the Bank of Canada early in 2018 and should any news come out that alters that view then we may see the Canadian Dollar weaken off a little more. We also need to remember that should we have news to bolster the chances of a rate hike in Canada then you would expect the Canadian Dollar to gain back some strength.

In my opinion, I feel that the Canadian Dollar may weaken a little further from its current position and that another hike in early 2018 may be a little too early, but it will be interesting and extremely important to see how the market reacts to inflation data out later in the week.

If you have Canadian Dollars to either buy or indeed sell then we can help you carry this out in this fairly choppy market. You are welcome to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) directly by emailing djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief overview of your needs and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the options you have and explain how I can assist you.

Where next for CAD? (Daniel Johnson)

Could we see further gains for CAD?

The Canadian dollar has performed well at the start of November, dropping as low as 1.65 against Sterling. Although there are worries surrounding trade between the US and Canada (the US is Canada’s biggest trade partner)  I am still of the opinion there could be further losses for the pound.

The major threat for Sterling short term is a mutiny within the conservative party. There are now as many as forty MP’s who are willing to put forward a vote of non confidence. If there are as many as forty-eight, May will no longer be allowed to continue as Prime minister. Political uncertainty, historically weakens the currency in question and a vote of no confidence in the current PM will do the pound no favours.

Not that I am a particular fan of May, but I am in favour of politicians actually doing their job and doing their best for the country rather than chasing their own political agendas. More chance of Weinstein becoming a woman’s rights activist.

If you have a Canadian dollar requirement I think the wise option would be to take advantage of current levels. If you are looking at risk vs reward. the risk does not warrant the reward short to medium term.

Canadian CPI data could influence monetary policy 

The most important releases this week from Canada is Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday, this is expected to have fallen ever so slightly back from 1.4% from 1.6% from the previous month. This data release is likely to set the tone as to whether the Bank of Canada (BOC) will change monetary policy  in their last meeting of the year on December 6th and so could cause volatility on the exchange.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted at  dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

Could the Pound make further gains vs the Canadian Dollar? (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs the Canadian Dollar has had a strong period towards the end of the week with UK economic data all coming out a lot better than expected which has helped to see the Pound make gains vs the Canadian Dollar.

We began Friday morning with stronger than expected UK Industrial & Manufacturing data which gave the Pound a boost against all major currencies including vs the Canadian Dollar.

With the Brexit talks currently being held in preparation for the next summit due to be held in December this has caused some uncertainty for the Pound recently but we are still trading relatively strong vs the CAD$, which highlights the problems that the Canadian economy is facing.

Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz has maintained a rather neutral tone on when Canada might next change interest rates and suggested that it was keeping a close eye on what is happening with wage growth as well as inflation.

The central bank has already raised interest rates twice this year but this has done little to strengthen the Canadian Dollar and I think they’ll now be keeping interest rates on hold for quite some time to come.

Therefore, if you’re looking to buy Canadian Dollars I think we could see further gains to come for the Pound vs the CAD$.

If you have a need to make a currency transfer in the coming days, weeks or months then feel free to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency compared to your bank or another currency broker.

Even a small improvement in the exchange rates can make a big difference so feel free to to email me and you may find you could save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will respond to you as soon as I can.

Sterling predicted to fall further in 2018, should you exchange your Pounds now? (Joseph Wright)

This morning could be important for Sterling exchange rates as UK trade balance figures for the Pound are due to be released.

UK Trade balance figures are important because they will demonstrate the gap between what Britain buys from the rest of the world versus what it sells back.

This update comes at a time that major Swiss lender, UBS have highlighted the growing imbalance in the UK’s trade book which is the highest of all G7 countries. Due to the uncertainty surrounding the UK economy moving forward as the Brexit uncertainties continue to weigh on Sterling, UBS have stated that should foreign investment into the UK begin to decline the UK trade balance figures could become much worse and the Pound could fall up to another 20%.

This would occur due to a lack of support for the Pound as less investors pile into UK assets.

Aside from this morning’s data release there will also be a key release this afternoon, as a leading think tank will release the UK’s GDP figures which cover economic output. The Pound is likely to react to this figure depending on whether it meets, beats or doesn’t measure up to the expectations and feel free to get in touch if you wish to discuss this in further detail.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will GBPCAD hit 1.70 again?

GBPCAD hit 1.70 ten days ago presenting some of the best rates to buy Canadian dollars with pounds since June.  This is great opportunity considering the outlook for the pound remains very uncertain, Stephen Poloz is the Governor of the Bank of Canada and whilst he has been gently weakening the Loonie lately, the currency is likely to strengthen longer term.

Overall markets are expecting the pound could come under more pressure than the Loonie dollar as we still know very little about just what Brexit will mean. For example the Theresa May government in the UK looks likely to implode any day and this is not helping the negotiations and confidence in the UK. Meanwhile Canada might have jumped the gun recently on their latest interest rate hike but their economy is performing well with their biggest trading partner the US going fro strength to strength.

The price of oil has been rising too which is a major boost for the Canadian dollar. Therefore if you are looking to buy or sell Canadian dollars understanding the latest trends and news is vital to getting the most for your money. Overall expectations of the market and future direction on the exchange rates will be determined largely by the progress of Brexit and also the price of Oil and interest rates.

The pound could see some improvements back up to the 1.70 level but there is an expectation that the pound will lose ground, if you need to buy or sell this pairing I would be making some plans in advance. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

When to buy Canadian dollars?

Since the second rate hike of the year by the Bank of Canada in September, the central bank have been given a cautious tone. However in recent weeks employment numbers have continued to climb which is helping the outlook for the next 12 months. J.P Morgan this week have urged there clients to buy Canadian dollars sooner rather than later as a strong 2018 is on the horizon.

Forecasters are suggesting that interest rates will be hiked at least twice in 2018 which should provide strength for the Canadian dollar. Couple this with wage growth numbers climbing and only oil prices lagging behind the outlook is looking positive.

 

However for clients that are converting GBPCAD exchange rates, buying Canadian dollars may not be the best option. My personal belief is that it’s only a matter of time until progression is made with the Brexit negotiations which could cause a mass buy of sterling which would mean Canadian dollars would become cheaper.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May last week announced that a deal is close to being secured in regards to EU citizens rights. If this true, the UK will be one step closer to negotiating a trade deal which is the reason I expect the pound to strengthen. It just shows when buying or selling Canadian dollars into important to analyse both currencies that you will be trading.

The currency company I work for enables me to buy and sell Canadian Dollars at rates better than other brokerages and high street banks. If you are buying or selling euros this year feel free to send me the currency pair you are trading (CADUSD, CADEUR, CADGBP) the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn

Canadian Exchange Rates Ahead of Bank of Canada Statement

GBP CAD exchange rates have fallen dramatically following the Bank of England interest rate decision to raise interest rates yesterday and have failed to bounce back today. Anyone looking to sell Canadian dollars for pounds have been presented with an excellent opportunity which came as a surprise to the markets. The fact that interest rates are now not likely to be rising again anytime soon should keep pressure on GBP CAD especially considering the ongoing Brexit negotiations where progress is slow.

The Canadian dollar had seen some considerable weakness in recent weeks after the Bank of Canada signalled that it was not looking to raise interest rates anytime soon. To recap the Bank of Canada surprised the markets with two interest rates increases in July and September which had the impact of strengthening the dollar. Now this rate hike cycle appears to be running out of steam the dollar is once again coming under some renewed pressure.

Canadian manufacturing data could create some movement for the dollar next week after the release of the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index on Monday. Later in the week however the Governor of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz will be speaking and this could create substantial volatility for Canadian dollar exchange rates. Any further clues as to when the central bank may consider raising interest rates again is likely to see the market react. This is the major release for Canada next week.

Clients with a requirement to buy or sell Euros for Canadian dollars should pay close attention to events in Spain with the Catalonian crisis far from over. Expect mass protests over the weekend and a process that could drag on for a number of months. Ousted leader Carles Puidgemont is not willing to return to Spain to face charges of sedition, rebellion and misuse of public funds and so the situation is likely to be tangled up with lawyers. The Euro could come under pressure if there is a growing sense of uncertainty creating some better opportunities for CAD EUR rates.

If you would like further information on sterling or Canadian dollar exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact myself James on 0044 1494 787 478. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

CAD Strengthens Following BoE Interest Rate Decision (Matthew Vassallo)

Yesterday’s much anticipated Bank of England (BoE) didn’t’ fail to disappoint, although the outcome for the markets was perhaps more unexpected.

GBP/CAD rates dropped to towards 1.67 and despite a recent downturn in the Canadian economy, the CAD gained over two cents against the Pound.

GBP/CAD had been trading comfortably above 1.70 last week and this fall, was not in line with many investors expectations.

This improvement for the CAD came, despite the Bank of England (BoE) raising interest rates for the first time in over 10 years.

Yesterday’s decision was pre-empted to some extent. The markets had already factored in the 0.25% rate hike, which was ultimately confirmed by the BoE. For this reason I always felt that the downside risk for those clients holding the Pound, certainly outweighed any the potential upside returns.

The reason for the CAD’s improvements is likely to be a combination of factors. The markets has clearly factored in a small hike by the BoE but it was the subsequent minutes which may have been prominent in Sterling’s downfall.

BoE governor Mark Carney was fairly downbeat and portrayed warning over any further rate rises whilst Brexit negotiations were on-going.

This combines with the negative perception surrounding the UK economy at present and whilst Canada’s economic output has shrunk in recent months, the Pound always likely to find resistance whilst so much uncertainty continues to engulf the UK economy.

If you have an upcoming GBP or CAD currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

GBPCAD drops like a stone

This afternoon the Bank of England announced their latest interest rate decision and the monetary policy committee voted in favour of hiking interest rates to 0.5% which was the first rate hike in 10 years.  Many of my clients were under the impression that the pound would soar against the Canadian dollar off the back of the news however the pound actually dropped over 1.5% against the Canadian dollar.

The rate hike was seen by investors as a dovish hike. What I mean by this is that 2 members out of 9 actually voted in favour of leaving interest rates on hold at 0.25% due to wage growth numbers being outpaced by inflation. Couple this with growth forecasts being slashed for next year this is why the pound lost value against the Canadian dollar and all of the major currencies.

Now that GBPCAD has dropped below 1.70, the question is what next for GBPCAD exchange rates. Personally I expect Brexit negotiations to drive the exchange price and personally I wouldn’t be surprised to see the pound recover against the loonie. For Canadian dollar sellers this could be a spike in the market to take advantage of.

Today is the release of US Non Farm Payroll numbers. This is one of the most important releases of the month for the US and has a major impact on all currencies as currency speculators look to make money on the release. Expect volatility around 1pm.

If you are buying or selling Canadian dollars this week, month or year and I haven’t covered your currency pair I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (CADUSD, CADGBP, CADAUD) and the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and I will response with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **