Canadain dollar value set to fall

The Canadian dollar has lost ground today off the back of oil prices taking a tumble. Oil is Canada’s largest export and there is a direct correlation between oil and the price of the Canadian dollar. However its not oil prices that I would be concerned about if needed to convert Canadian dollars into a foreign currency anytime soon.

The Canadian people should be keeping a close eye on US President Donald Trump as the President has been making it clear that he plans to remove the US out of the NAFTA trade agreement.  The President believe the US manufacturing industry is struggling because labour is to cheap in Mexico. His demand is for reforms or he will plea to the Senate to start the process of leaving NAFTA.

Negotiators from the US, Canada and Mexico are all in Montreal at present at the 6th round of negotiations and the negotiations are set to finish tomorrow. I am expecting to receive an update from the US President in the upcoming weeks, therefore if you are exposed to Canadian dollar currency exchanges I would recommend making arrangements as soon as possible as this event has the potential to have a major impact on the price you receive. My prediction is major Canadian dollar weakness in the weeks to come.

The currency company I work for enables me to buy and sell Canadian Dollars at rates better than other brokerages and high street banks. If you are buying or selling euros this year feel free to send me the currency pair you are trading (CADUSD, CADEUR, CADGBP) the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn

Pound hits best rate to buy Canadian Dollar since May 2017 (Tom Holian)

The Pound has hit the best rate to buy Canadian Dollars since last May with the Canadian Dollar weakening in part due to the uncertainty surrounding NATFA.

The US Dollar has also weakened to its lowest level against the Pound since the Brexit vote back in June 2016 and this has also caused the Canadian Dollar to weaken vs Sterling.

The US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has been suggesting that the US is welcoming a weaker Dollar which is turn is also weakening the CAD vs GBP.

Sterling has had a very positive start to the year against a number of major currencies including vs the CAD and I think we could see further strength for the Pound ahead.

The tone surrounding Brexit appears to be a lot more positive with German Chancellor Angela Merkel wanting to maintain a close relationship with the UK and European Union in the future.

With phase 2 of the Brexit negotiations due to start again in March I think this time round we could see the talks get closer to some form of resolution and I think we could see GBPCAD exchange rates move in an upwards direction.

The Bank of England have also suggested that the next change for UK interest rates could be an upwards direction. UK inflation remains above the government’s target and as we saw in November the central bank will act appropriately and I think we could see an interest rate hike coming before the end of this year.

If you have a need to make a currency transfer in the near future then feel free to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency compared to your bank or another currency broker.

Even a small improvement in the exchange rates can make a big difference so feel free to to email me and you may find you could save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will respond to you as soon as I can.

CAD Forecast – NAFTA Talks Likely to Drive GBP/CAD Value (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/CAD rates have levelled out following a positive move for Sterling earlier this week.

The pair is now trading just above 1.75, with Sterling making inroads again the majority of the major currencies during the early part of the trading week. This positive move came despite the Canadian economy remaining strong in the eyes of investors, with a run of positive economic data supporting this theory.

However, despite this positive perception the CAD has actually struggled against the Pound of late, making little impact against its Sterling counterpart since the turn of the year.

The Pound has gained over two cents this week but with the CAD finally gaining some support around 1.75, the key question is which direction the pair will take next?

With the current trend surprising considering the relative health of each economy, all eyes will be locked on this morning’s UK Gross Domestic product (GDP) figures.

This will be viewed with interest by investors and if a figures comes outside of the expected 0.4% growth, expect further movement on GBP/CAD rates this morning.

Anyone with an upcoming CAD currency requirement should also keep an eye on developments at the Davos economic summit, where US President Donald Trump is speaking later this evening. Considering his past outbursts on a variety of topics, any further backlash regarding the current North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) talks could be detrimental to the CAD’s value.

In fact looking at the recent trend and it is likely that this topic is playing a key role in the CAD’s inability to gain any sustained support against the Pound.

Trump has been extremely vocal about his dissatisfaction with the current NAFTA terms, feeling they do not benefit the US as they should. He has already threatened to pull out of the agreement, which if it were to happen would be extremely detrimental to the Canadian economy.

Whilst Canada’s global export of crude oil helps support their economy, their primary importers are the US. Therefore any shift in this trade relationship will no doubt have an impact, which is currently being factored into the CAD’s value, at least to some extent by investors.

Whilst Trump may struggle to convince Congress to pass any decision to leave NAFTA, the current uncertainty is weighing heavily on investors and as such the CAD is struggling to make an impact against the major currencies, including the Pound.

However, the current trend could be reversed at any time and considering the relative health of the Canadian economy, I would be tempted to remove the on-going risk factor and secure any short-term GBP/CAD positions whilst rates continue to trade around the current levels.

If you have an upcoming CAD or any currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Will the Pound continue to climb vs the Canadian Dollar, and what factors could impact it? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has been climbing against all major currency pairs recently, after sentiment has improved surrounding the UK economy quite dramatically in recent weeks.

It seemed to get a shot in arm a few weeks back when both Spain and the Netherlands announced that they want post-Brexit conditions to remain conducive to business continuing as normal.

Since then hopes of a transitional deal have increased with some major media outlets in the UK jumping the gun and announcing that the deal and the conditions involved had already been agreed, but this isn’t the case.

Just yesterday the Pound was boosted after it emerged that UK unemployment has hit an all time low, and Sterling bulls were buoyed once more after even wage growth showed a sign of improvement which has been a major drag on the Pounds value and under the microscope, as there are fears that the cost of living in the UK will increase after inflation has increased recently.

The GBP/CAD exchange rate was helped earlier after Retail Sales data disappointed causing a sell-off in CAD’s value. The ongoing issues and rumours surrounding the NAFTA agreement has also been putting pressure on the Loonies value due to the uncertainty this is causing.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBPCAD close to reaching 12 month high!

In recent weeks the GBPCAD exchange rates have continued to climb proving opportunity for Canadian dollar buyers, however I expect exchange rates could get better in the weeks to come.

NAFTA negotiations began on Tuesday in Montreal and the initial reaction is that the negotiations have actually started well which is a surprise. However the underlining issue is that US President Donald Trump wants to modernise the NAFTA agreement or remove the US. Mr Trumps theory is that the manufacturing sector in the US is under performing due to the cheap labour in Mexico. Even though negotiations have gone well I expect the Canadian dollar to remain under severe pressure.

The pound has been performing well of late due to recent economic data releases. Forecasters are suggesting that the numbers are exceeding expectation due to global growth coupled with a slight change in sentiment surrounding Brexit.

Yesterday average earnings numbers exceeded expectation which is a surprise as the Bank of England predictions are for further falls. Also Angela Merkel announced yesterday at Davos that she wants the UK and EU to have a strong relationship after Brexit which explains the spike for sterling against all major currencies.

If I was holding onto Canadian dollars and needed to buy sterling, I would look to trade now and not take the risk of waiting, as I believe it is a matter of time until the UK secures a trade deal with the EU.

If you are buying or selling Canadian dollars this week, month or year and I haven’t covered your currency pair I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (CADUSD, CADGBP, CADAUD) and the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and I will response with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Canadian Dollar suffers despite rate hike (Daniel Johnson)

NAFTA is a cause for concern for CAD

The Bank of Canada (BOC) decided raise rates last week after positive economic data, particularly unemployment, which plunged to the lowest levels in forty years. Common belief would be to assume a rate hike means a stronger currency, this is not always the case.

The market moves on rumour as well as fact and the rate hike was anticipated following the release of the unemployment data so the hike was already factored into the exchange. There is also the  matter of the North American Free Trade (NAFTA) agreement which has held back the loonie.

Mexico and Canada are heavily reliant on the US purchasing their exports and the NAFTA deal has served both Canada and Mexico well. Donald Trump however is far from happy with current terms as he continues with his “America comes first” plans. Trump stated it is the “worst trade deal in history.”

The deal is currently being renegotiated and the negotiations are not going well. Trump’s demands are considered to be unrealistic. The US has introduced a number of proposals into negotiations that are inconsistent with the principals of free trade.

There is the possibility the US could withdraw from the deal completely which could have severe implications for Mexico and Canada. It is predicted a NAFTA withdrawal could cause as many as 1.3 million  job losses and a significant hit to Canada’s and Mexico’s imports from the US.

If you have a trade involving the Canadian Dollar keep a keen eye on NAFTA talks it has the power to influence Canadian Dollar value. The present situation does not bode well for CAD.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson

 

What can we expect next for the Canadian dollar?

The Canadian dollar is looking slightly weaker against the pound which has surprisingly found some form lately. We are still not out of the woods for the Brexit and it does feel the Canadian dollar should from the fundamental considerations being strengthening very soon. More often than not currency rates move in advance of an event and I think this is why rates are so good.

If you are looking to buy Canadian dollars we are at some of the best rates to sell pounds for the Loonie since the EU vote 19 months ago. Overall expectations for the GBPCAD rate are that it could drop lower as the pound comes under pressure from Brexit uncertainty plus the markets begin to question the likelihood of the NAFTA deal collapsing.

The North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement has been targetted by Trump who wants it torn up to help the US economy. He argues it is bad for US companies, this could pose a great challenge to the Canadian economy but in my opinion is unlikely to be completely rejected. Trump cannot just push a button and cancel these arrangements, he has to pass measures through a legislative procedure and this all takes time.

I expect the growing global economy will continue to support the Canadian economy and also importantly demand for oil. This should all help to boost the Canadian economy and the Canadian dollar as they are both supported by strong demand for Canadian raw materials.

If you are buying Canadian dollars with pounds I would suggest looking to buy sooner on these spikes as there seems a good chance the current good news will not last for too long.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

US Shutdown and Canadian Interest Rates – Impact on GBPCAD exchange rates (Tom Holian)

Despite the Bank of Canada having increased interest rates earlier this week the Canadian Dollar has actually weakened against the Pound during the last few days.

Indeed, GBPCAD exchange rates are now at their best trading level since the end of November.

The CAD$ has weakened owing to the uncertainty surrounding both NAFTA as well as the problems in the US with the government facing a shutdown.

A deadline has been set for midnight tonight as Trump and Republican leaders in Congress are looking to pass a spending bill in order to keep the US government open.

When this happened previously back in October 2013 this lasted for a fortnight and over 800,000 employees were affected.

The shutdown affects a number of different agencies and this will often negatively affect the value of the US economy and therefore will also negatively affect the Canadian Dollar as well.

The ongoing problems with what is happening with the NAFTA agreement has also weakened the Canadian Dollar and whilst this uncertainty continues I think the CAD could remain under a lot of pressure against the Pound.

UK Retail Sales came out a lot lower than expected this morning and typically this would result in Sterling falling against the Canadian Dollar but owing to the problems in the US as well as NAFTA this is the reason for the ongoing Canadian Dollar weakness.

Therefore, if you’re looking at selling Canadian Dollars it may be worth getting this organised in the near future.

If you have a need to make a currency transfer involving buying or selling Canadian Dollars in the coming days, weeks or months then feel free to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency compared to your bank or another currency broker.

Even a small improvement in the exchange rates can make a big difference so feel free to to email me and you may find you could save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will respond to you as soon as I can.

CAD Forecast – Why is the CAD Struggling Despite Wednesday’s Interest Rate Hike? (Matthew Vassallo)

The CAD has found life tough going of late, struggling to make any significant impact against Sterling since the turn of the year.

GBP/CAD rates move back above 1.73 overnight and although the CAD found some support around this level, the current trend is somewhat baffling considering the relative health of the UK & Canadian economies.

The uncertainty surrounding Brexit is having a huge impact on investors risk appetite for the Pound. Despite talks progressing to phase two, it has done little to dispel the current negativity and as such the Pound is struggling to make any sustainable impact against the majority of major currencies.

The Canadian economy on the other hand was boosted by Wednesday’s interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada (BoC). Usually a rate rise would boost the currency in question and with Canada’s economy seemingly outperforming that of its UK counterpart, why have we seen the Pound make further gains against the CAD?

The answer probably lies with the current concern surrounding the terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). US President Donald Trump has been extremely vocal about his dissatisfaction with the current terms, feeling they do not benefit the US as they should.

He has threatened to pull out of the agreement, which if it were to happen would be extremely detrimental to the Canadian economy.

Whilst Canada’s global export of crude oil helps support their economy, their primary importers are the US. Therefore any shift in this trade relationship will no doubt have an impact, which is currently being factored into the CAD’s value, at least to some extent by investors.

Whilst Trump may struggle to convince Congress to pass any decision to leave NAFTA, the current uncertainty is weighing heavily on investors and as such the CAD is struggling to make an impact against the major currencies, including the Pound.

If you have an upcoming GBP or CAD currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Why did the Canadian Dollar fall when interest rates were hiked? (Joseph Wright)

Yesterday the Bank of Canada chose to raise interest rates for the third time in the last year.

The interest rate now sits at 1.25% and those that decide on making the decision to change interest rates have stated that this decision can be put down to increasing inflation levels, and an a strong Canadian economy.

Many economists and market traders had predicted the move and the Loonie had been increasing in the lead up to the decision, and once it was made official many took profits on their positions which put downward pressure on the currency.

The ongoing issue of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is also putting pressure on the Loonie as fears surrounding Trumps recent comments regarding the agreement have lead many to believe that it could be renegotiated which wouldn’t work in favour of Canada.

If the US pulls out of the agreement I believe CAD will fall sharply, and Governor Poloz has alluded to this possibility so those planning on converting Canadian Dollars should be aware of this.

If you would like to be updated should the rates move dramatically, do feel free to register your interest with me as working on a trading floor allows us to react quickly to fast price changes.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.