Canadian Dollar Future Still Uncertain over NAFTA

The Canadian dollar remains under pressure following a rocky ride talks in the NAFTA talks. The Canadian dollar has a lot to lose if talks break down and the agreement comes to an end. There have been a number of contentious issues not least the sunset clause which has been called for by the US to allow for termination at the end of the agreed period. Clients looking to buy Canadian dollars with pounds are seeing rates well over 1.69 with levels trying to break over 1.70 for the GBP CAD pair.

The Loonie has been supported over the last few months after the interest rate increase from the Bank of Canada although everything is now uncertain with the lack of agreement with NAFTA.

CAD EUR is also slipping lower as on the one hand the Canadian dollar is weakening whilst the Euro has been generally strengthening following better economic data and the European Central Bank tapering programme which has now commenced. Clients looking to buy or sell property in Europe and have a pending requirement would be wise to get in touch to look at the options available and to make the most of exchange rate fluctuations.

The pound has held up very well against the Canadian dollar and that is despite the ongoing Brexit uncertainty. A key date for anyone looking to either buy or sell Canadian dollars for pounds should mark the middle of December as an important period. The next EU summit will be held at this time and should there be any movement to a discussion on future trade then the pound could see a good boost. Any positive news like this should see the pound rally higher against the Canadian dollar. The risk however is that if the deadlock between Britain and the EU cannot be broken then the pound is likely to fall. Clients looking to sell Canadian dollars for pounds could see a good opportunity if there is still not sufficient progress.

To discuss how these events are having a direct impact on Canadian dollar exchange rates please feel free to contact me at jll@currencies.co.uk

CAD rallies against the US dollar

Over the last 48 hours the Canadian dollar has been performing well against the US dollar as oil prices have rallied. Oil is Canada’s largest export and the trend is for the Canadian dollar to perform well when oil prices are on the way up. The price of US crude oil has reached $58 a barrel for the first time since July 2015 and if this figure breaks through the $60 mark, I expect the Canadian dollar to continue to strengthen.

In addition the US dollar dropped against most major currencies Wednesday evening as Durable goods orders for October dropped to -1.2% from 2% and the latest Fed minutes seemed slightly more dovish than many had expected, which means an interest rate hike in December isn’t a guarantee.

With Thanks Giving festivities under way, I expect CADUSD exchange rates to remain fairly flat throughout the day, however I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Canadian dollar make further inroads tomorrow against the US dollar. Looking further ahead the interest rate decision for the US on the 13th December could shape CADUSD for the start of 2018 and I am still of the opinion that the Federal Reserve will follow through an interest rates will sit at 1.5% at the start of 2018. For US dollar buyers it may be worth putting a plan in place over the 2-3 weeks.

The currency company I work for enables me to buy and sell Canadian Dollars at rates better than other brokerages and high street banks. If you are buying or selling euros this year feel free to send me the currency pair you are trading (CADUSD, CADEUR, CADGBP) the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn

Could the Pound hit 1.70 vs the Canadian Dollar? (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs the Canadian Dollar is now trading close to its best level to buy Canadian Dollars since early November following the release of today’s Autumn Statement by Chancellor Philip Hammond.

The Pound has been making progress towards 1.70 but has not yet been able to make a sustained berate of this level highlighting the resistance at this particular exchange rate.

The price of crude oil is now at a 2 year high of USD$58 per barrel which typically would be a good thing for the Canadian Dollar vs the Pound as oil is one of Canada’s largest exports.

However,  the route from Canada to south of the border in the US called the Keystone pipeline which carries 590,000 barrels per day from Alberta to the US was shut down after an oil spillage in South Dakota.

Canadian Retail Sales are due for release at 130pm tomorrow afternoon with the expectation for 1% for the month of September. During the course of 2017 Retail Sales in Canada have shown signs of a slowdown highlights that there are ongoing problems in the Canadian economy and further evidence of this tomorrow could see the Pound make gains towards 1.70 during tomorrow afternoon so make sure you’re prepared for what may happen to GBPCAD exchange rates.

Overall however I expect the Brexit talks which are due to recommence during mid-December to have the greatest influence on what happens with GBPCAD exchange rates before the end of the year so if you’d like more information then feel free to make contact.

If you have a need to make a currency transfer in the coming days, weeks or months then feel free to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency compared to your bank or another currency broker.

Even a small improvement in the exchange rates can make a big difference so feel free to to email me and you may find you could save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will respond to you as soon as I can.

 

 

 

GBP/CAD Forecast – CAD Finds Support Following Sterling Spike (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/CAD rates have fallen during Tuesday’s trading, as the CAD found some support around 1.70.

The CAD hit a high of 1.6873, giving it some much needed respite following the recent loses against Sterling.

Sterling’s performance against the CAD has not been mirrored against most of the other major currencies and therefore the recent spike is somewhat surprising.

Considering how much pressure the UK economy has been under of late, this improvement has been taken advantage of by many of our clients with a short-term GBP/CAD currency exchange requirement.

It is likely that the Pound’s value has been boosted by a lack of investor confidence in the Canadian economy, with the CAD’s value a direct impact of this negative market perception. One of the driving forces behind this dip in market confidence, is likely linked to the re-negotiating of the North Atlantic Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

The fifth round of talks got under way last week but with speculation that the agreement could breakdown due to one or more members walking away, the markets have created negatively to this potential outcome.

Another reason for the Cad’s recent dip is a fall in inflation figures, which has heaped further pressure on the Bank of Canada to act. Considering they only recently hiked interest rates, it is seems they are reluctant to act again and this is only adding to the current uncertainty.

All of this has conspired to push the CAD’s value down and this is inadvertently boosting Sterling’s. However, this means that the current value on GBP/CAD could be viewed as slightly over-valued, especially when you consider the market perception around the UK economy remains negative.

We also need to consider how the markets may react to tomorrow’s UK Autumn budget. Whilst this generally does have a significant impact on the currency markets, UK Chancellor Philip Hammond is under pressure following the last budget in March, which was widely criticised.

For this reason I would be very tempted to take advantage of the current highs and remove any market risk.

If you have an upcoming GBP or CAD currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Canadian Dollar drops in line with oil weakness, will GBP/CAD continue to climb? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Canadian Dollar rate breached the 1.70 mark once again this morning, after previously hitting that level back on the first day on this month.

Mid-market levels of 1.70 are the highest since June of last year, meaning that those converting their Pounds into Canadian Dollars are able to do so at some of the best levels in almost 18-months.

The reason behind this can be put down to both Sterling strength as well as CAD weakness, as talks of the 23-year old NAFTA trade deal being updated have concerned Loonie investors.

The drop in the value of oil has also weighed on the Loonie’s value as oil is a key export for the Canadian economy, so there are many factors pushing the Loonie’s value lower at the moment which is why we’ve seen the 1.70 level tested again.

Moving forward I wouldn’t be surprised to see the GBP/CAD rate continue to climb, as inflation levels have been falling after two surprise rate interest rate hikes from the Bank of Canada earlier this year. This leads me to believe that there won’t be any further rate hikes in the short term future, with some economists suggesting the Bank of Canada may have been overly hasty hiking rates.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

NAFTA breakdown has potential to weaken CAD (Daniel Johnson)

Trump plays hard ball on new NAFTA deal

Donald Trump has decided to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) which has been in operation for over twenty- three years.

Trump believes Mexico and Canada have benefited from the agreement, but hasn’t been as lucrative as it should be for the United states. Trump believes NAFTA was a disaster and went as far as to say it is “the worst trade deal in history.”

Mexico, Canada and the US have now sat down to renegotiate the treaty. Many believe the negotiations are destined to failure and if this is the case it will hit the Canadian Dollar hard.

The implications for Canada should NAFTA cease could catastrophic and should not be underestimated. It would effect both imports and exports. Negotiations have been extended into the new year but many are not taking the threat of a break down in talks seriously enough. Current market conditions would say the potential for a break up is not factored in. Which means there could be substantial fall in CAD value.

Current opinion is that  Trump and his negotiations team appear to be hell bent on making the talks fail. They are asking outrageous demands which would greatly reduce the benefits of NAFTA to Canada and Mexico. The US also wish to have a sunset clause which comes into play after five years which would allow renegotiations. If you are selling Canadian Dollars it may be wise to take advantage of current levels.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

GBP CAD Breaks Over 1.69 over NAFTA Uncertainty

The Canadian dollar has weakened this week with levels for GBP CAD breaking back over 1.69 for this pair. There is currently a good opportunity to buy Canadian dollars with pounds which may not be around for too much longer. The spike has come about after concerns over the renegotiation of the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) have come to light. There have been reports that there is a chance that one side could walk away from the agreement entirely.

Canada is also feeling the pinch after the US has imposed hefty duties on softwood lumber exports from Canada adding to Canada woes. Whilst the Canadian economy is performing well and interest rates have risen twice this year there is every chance that the Canadian dollar could find itself in some deeper water whilst Mexico, Canada and the US battle through this renegotiation.

As far as GBP CAD is concerned the pound is likely to see considerable volatility next week with the ongoing Brexit uncertainty and political instability for the UK. There is also the UK budget which will be given by Chancellor Philip Hammond next Wednesday which will no doubt generate a lot of attention and could see the pound react in this uncertain period in British politics.

The pound remains very much on a weaker footing after the Bank of England signalled that it is in no hurry to raise interest rates again any time soon. Although the central bank raised rates to 0.5% earlier this month it has signalled that there are unlikely to be any changes in the foreseeable future and it was this rhetoric which actually helped see the pound following a rate rise.

For more information on the Canadian dollar and how to maximise on the rates of exchange when transferring funds please feel free to email me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBPCAD exchange rates forecast

At present GBPCAD exchange rates are being dictated by events in the UK. The spotlight is certainly shining on UK Prime Minister Theresa May as reports were leaked 5 days ago suggesting 40 Conservative MPs plan to  sign a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister. For this to materialise there will need to be 48 members that sign the bill.

In addition pressure is mounting on all involved with the Brexit negotiations as head Eu negotiator Michel Barnier gave 2 week deadline to the UK for progression. As this announcement was released last Friday there are only 8 days until the public should know more about Brexit and if the UK plan to pay a divorce settlement bill.

With Brexit negotiations in full swing, I expect major volatility for GBPCAD exchange rates for the remainder of the year. Quite simply if no progression is made I believe Theresa May’s time as Prime Minister is limited and therefore GBPCAD exchange rates could fall to the lows that we saw 3 months ago (high 1.50s). However if a deal is struck and progression is made on the key topics the pound could continue on an upward trend to fresh highs.

The currency company I work for enables me to buy and sell Canadian Dollars at rates better than other brokerages and high street banks. If you are buying or selling euros this year feel free to send me the currency pair you are trading (CADUSD, CADEUR, CADGBP) the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn

Will GBPCAD rise back above 1.70?

The ability to buy Canadian dollars above 1.70 two weeks ago was an opportunity we did describe as well worth capitalising on. There is an overall belief that the pound will continue to display signs of weakness and the economic conditions are more supportive for the Canadian currency. I stand by these sentiments and whilst there are potentials for a surprise shift back above 1.70 the wind looks to remain with CAD sellers.

Whilst the US dollar strengthened against the Canadian dollar weakening the Loonie slightly yesterday, economic data for the UK today could be a real mover. Retail Sales figures at 9.30 am will give us a clearer picture on the spending habits of British consumers, a lifeblood to the economy. Big news for the Canadian economy is tomorrow with Inflation data, one of the reasons for the strength of the Loonie has been rising interest rates in Canada. Should Inflation rise the Bank of Canada could well be on course to raise their base rate further which would strengthen the Loonie.

All in all it appears to me the conditions in the UK economy versus the Canadian economy favour the Canadian one and therefore the Canadian dollar. However exchange rates can change unexpectedly, another factor to consider regarding the Canadian dollar is the price of Oil which has been softening a little after a recent spike, this is what helped the price of the Loonie to rise above 1.70 too. Falling demand globally as experts predict a warmer winter will only exacerbate the issues of major oversupply which has been a major thorn in the side of the price of Oil in recent months and years.

If you have a transfer buying or selling the Canadian dollar we are here to help with the latest trends and news to help you make an informed choice and decision on any transfer. For more information at no obligation or cost please email me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading this post and I look forward to discussing some strategy with you.

Will uncertainty surrounding the UK government push the Pound lower? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Canadian Dollar rate, despite trading within quite a wide range over the past year is actually flat on an annualised basis, after the Pound has lost quite a lot of value in recent weeks due to mounting pressure on the UK’s Prime Minister.

There are apparently dozens of Conservative MP’s that are prepared to sign a vote of no-confidence against the current PM which is putting pressure on the Pounds value, and recently it’s fallen against the majority of major currency pairs.

At the same time oil has strengthened recently which has boosted the Loonie’s value also, which has accentuated the drop in the GBP to CAD value which was trading over 1.70 earlier in the month.

The rate of inflation fell below the Bank of England’s predictions for the month of October, which has lead many economists to questions whether the BoE was right to hike the rates earlier this month for the first time in 10-years.

Moving forward I think that if inflationary pressures do subside and the PM’s position continues to be questioned I think we may see the Pound soften as the end of the year approaches.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement involving the pair discussed in this blog, do feel free to get in touch if you wish to be updated if there is a spike in the rate.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.