How will GBPCAD perform for the rest of the month?

The pound to Canadian dollar has been slipping from the highs of almost 1.68 to more comfortable levels in the 1.64-1.65 range. Most clients looking to buy Canadian dollars are now faced with two key events to try and determine the future direction on the pairing, namely the likelihood of an interest rate hike by either the Bank of England or the Bank of Canada.

For both countries Inflation is a key factor in determining whether or not the central bank will raise interest rates. The expectation is that rising Inflation will lead to a hike in central bank rates but the picture is not completely clear. Raising interest rates by the central bank has the effect of causing an in crease in the value of said currency, this is one of the reasons GBPCAD has dropped from 1.77 to 1.64 in the last few months, it is not just a weaker pound, the Loonie has strengthened because the Bank of Canada has raised their base interest rate.

Looking ahead there is Inflation data tomorrow for Canada which could be a big driver on the interest rate decision next week. Whilst there appears more chance of the Bank of England acting than the Bank of Canada, I still think GBPCAD will drop fruther towards 1.60. This is because I expect that the commentary from the BoC will be much more positive and upbeat than the commentary from the UK.

If you have a transfer buying or selling Canadian dollars for pounds we can help with bank beating exchange rates and an expert service to help with the planning and timing of any exchanges. Through careful consideration and examination of the market and your situation we can offer strategy to help you maximise your exchange.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Trump threatens to leave NAFTA (Daniel Johnson)

 NAFTA collapse a possibility

There are worries for the Canadian Dollar at present caused by the potential for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to disintegrate.
President Trump has stated that there is the possibility the US could drop out of the trade deal if there is not agreement in hard-line proposals on Canada and Mexico. If Trump is serious about the threat and follows through with it this has the potential to severely weaken the Canadian dollar as the US is Canada’s primary trade partner.

This has outweighed a catalyst for Canadian dollar strength, a rise in oil price. There is currently conflict in the oil rich region of Kirkuk between Kurdish and Iraqi forces which has put concerns over oil production in the area. The potential fall in supply has caused oil price to rise which is Canada’s main export. It is worth keeping an eye on developments as this could influence CAD value.
Retail Sales & CPI data could cause movement in CAD value

Canadian retails sales data is released on Friday. It displays the all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retails stores of different sizes. This can influence exchange rates, but on this occasion, I think it may be a non-event as I do not predict much movement from the previous month.
Retails sales data is followed by Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. CPI is a measure of price movements by the comparison of between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of services and goods. It is a measure of inflation and is one of the key releases that can determine monetary policy. I think the situation in Kirkuk could cause a slight rise in inflation although due to Trump NAFTA threats Canadian dollar gains could be limited.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

Oil price rise helps the Canadian Dollar vs the Pound (Tom Holian)

The Canadian Dollar increased against Sterling during the course of yesterday’s trading session following a rise in the value of Brent Crude oil prices which hit USD$58 per barrel.

The Canadian Dollar increased against the Pound by over a cent which provided a good opportunity for anyone with a requirement to buy Pounds with Canadian Dollars.

Tensions are increasing in Kirkuk between Iraqi and Kurdish forces and the problem for the oil market is that this could interrupt supply and therefore demand could rise causing the value of oil to also rise.

Owing to the fact that the Canadian economy is heavily reliant on oil then the rise in the price could help to strengthen the Canadian economy and therefore also the value of CAD vs GBP.

Later today UK inflation is due out and if we see a rise as high as 3% this could put pressure on the Bank of England to look at raising interest rates when they meet on November 2nd.

If the data shows a fall we could also see GBPCAD exchange rates move in a negative direction so if you’re considering making a currency purchase involving Canadian Dollars then call me directly on 01494787478 for a free quote.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as I can.

GBP CAD Rallies – Theresa May In Brussels Tonight

GBP CAD exchange rates have seen an excellent day with gains of around 1% for this pair with levels hitting a high today of 1.6686 creating some better opportunites for those clients looking ot buy Canadian dollars.

British politics continue to be the main driver for GBP CAD and the planned dinner this evening between UK Prime Minister Theresa May and Jean Claude Juncker should create new direction for sterling exchange rates across the board. We will probably need to wait until tomorrow for the reaction but any positive noises and a suggestion that Brexit trade talks can now open should be seen as welcome and very positive news for the pound. However if talks are perceived as going badly then this is likely to see the pound come under pressure again with a move lower below 1.65 again.

Whilst talks are continuing between Britain and the EU so too are they happening between Canada, the US and Mexico. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is being discussed and the Canadian dollar could find itself coming under additional pressure. With protectionism creeping in from the US then any changes to the agreement could see a less favourable deal for the Canadians.

Tomorrow sees UK inflation figures which will be keenly viewed by the Bank of England. A strong figure tomorrow morning will only help cement those expectations that the central bank will look to raise interest rates in the coming months and possibly as soon as November. Consumer Price Index inflation numbers for Canada are released this Friday and could make for an interesting end to the week. A strong number here will only be another reason for the bank of Canada to raise interest rates again considering we have already seen two rate hikes this year.

If you would like further information on Canadian dollar exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP CAD Rallies on EU Discussion on Future Trade

GBP CAD exchange rates have seen a volatile week largely as a result of the ongoing Brexit developments which have had a direct and substantial impact on the price of sterling. The pound has made gains against the Canadian dollar after it was reported late yesterday that the European Union would now start discussions about a future trade agreement between Britain and the EU but without Britain. The news was received extremely well with sterling making gains across the board. GBP CAD now sits at 1.6613 up from a low of 1.6496. Any positive noises from the EU could see the pound rally further against the Canadian dollar.

The Bank of Canada releases is Business Outlook Survey next week which could give some direction for the Canadian dollar. The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year in July and September and any further clues from economic data that highlight a buoyant economy could see further gains for the dollar.

The price of oil is also a factor for the Canadian dollar and the recent cut in production by Saudi Arabia is helping to lift the price of oil higher. The Canadian dollar benefits from a rising oil price considering that Canada is a net exporter of oil.

Next Friday could make for an interesting end to the week with Canadian retail sales and Consumer Price Index inflation data. A strong retail sector and higher inflation figure are likely to boost the dollar on expectation the Bank of Canada will look to raise interest rates again. Those clients looking to buy Canadian dollars with sterling would be wise to get in contact and look at the options available to you.

If you would like further information on Canadian dollar exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Sterling boosted on talk of a potential 2-year transition period, will GBP/CAD continue to climb? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound traded in quite a volatile fashion yesterday after a number of mixed messages were sent by key Brexit personnel.

The end of the 5th round of Brexit negotiations lead the UK’s Brexit Secretary, David Davis to offer his views on how negotiations are going so far, and he was fairly upbeat. This was in contrast with his European counterpart, Michel Barnier who in contrast appears frustrated at how the talks are progressing, and this lead the Pound to fall.

The International Monetary Funds managing director, Christine Lagarde also gave her opinion regarding Brexit, and said that there needs to be further clarity regarding the UK’s position, and that a ‘No Deal’ Brexit is unthinkable. The reason for her comments are likely due to the fact that talk of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit has been in the UK news headlines this week after both UK Prime Minister Theresa May and the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond have both commented on this potential outcome this week.

There is no major economic data out of the UK before the weekend, and the situation out of Canada is the same so I expect the GBP/CAD rate to be driven by sentiment in the same fashion as yesterday.

In the current market its very difficult to judge which way the market will move next, but being on a trading floor means that we’re able to react quickly to short term moves. There are also trading options whereby you can set up automatic orders to trade at your preferred level, which can be a useful tool in the current market.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Further pressure on the Canadian dollar

The Canadian dollar has found itself under pressure over the last 24 hours due to the fall in oil prices. It has been reported that US fuel inventories have risen despite OPEC ordering a cut in production. For new readers, oil is Canada’s largest export and when oil prices fall so does the currencies value.

In other news, the Federal Reserve’s minutes this week hinted towards an interest rate hike in December, even though some members were worried about the low inflation numbers. Couple this with US oil inventories on the rise this has led to a sell off of Canadian dollars and speculators have moved into the safe haven US dollar.

The pound had a volatile day of trading as Michel Barnier announced that Brexit negotiations had ‘reached a state of deadlock’ which was bad news for any client buying Canadian dollars with sterling. The EU chief negotiator went on to exclaim that trade talks would not go ahead until further progression had been made. However throughout the afternoon the pound started to make gains against the Canadian dollar and rumours are suggesting that the EU will agree to the UK’s two year transition period.

For clients that are converting GBPCAD exchange rates economic data will continue to impact the exchange price that you receive however I expect Brexit negotiations to be the main driver.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement involving the Canadian Dollar, feel free to contact me (Dayle Littlejohn) drl@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

GBPCAD continues to slide!

GBPCAD rates have continues to slip from the very recent highs which saw the levels rise to near 1.70. Having spent much of the last few weeks in the lower 1.60’s and even less than 1.60, the recent spike presented a much improved fresh opportunity for clients looking to buy Canadian dollars with pounds. Overall the market seems likely to favour the Loonie as improving Oil prices and also a weaker pound support the GBPCAD slide.

The price of Oil has risen which has supported a stronger Canadian dollar. Oil is one of the biggest exports from Canada so when this valuable commodity rises in value, so does the Loonie dollar as it helps cement a more positive picture of the Canadian economy. The Canadian economy is also benefiting from its largest trading partner, the USA, performing very well with solid economic growth.

Both economies are on a path to raising interest rates and this gives the appearance of stronger currencies in the future. If you compare this to the UK which is currently struggling under the uncertainty by Brexit and also the concerns over the UK economy, the outlook for the coming weeks seems to favour the slide on GBPCAD in my opinion.

Most clients looking to buy Canadian dollars should I believe be taking advantage of the recent spikes as rates could very easily slip back down to 1.60 or lower. The one saving grace might be the prospect of the UK raising interest rates but there are no guarantees!

Overall there is a belief that rates will not continue to support a stronger pound for too much longer, a weaker pound in the future could cause problems if you need to buy Canadian dollars.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and please let me know if there is anything I can help with.

GBP/CAD Forecast – UK & Canadian Economic Activity Slowing (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/CAD rates have remained flat during Wednesday’s trading thus far, floating around 1.65 on the market exchange.

Investors remain sceptical as to which direction both the UK & Canadian economy may take, with both under pressure for various reasons.

Looking at the UK and the Pound’s value has decreased over recent months dropping, by over 10 cents in the past 6 months.The Pound has managed to gain a foothold above 1.60 but any major advances look unlikely under current market conditions.

We did see improvement yesterday, following some positive UK Manufacturing & Industrial Production figures. These came above market expectation, with the official figures of 1.6% & 2.8% growth, immediately boosted investor confidence in the UK economy.

The Pound rallied but any gains seem to be restricted at present, due to the considerable amount of pressure that remains on the UK economy. Brexit negotiations continue to dominate headlines and the negative association around these continue to cast a dark shadow over the UK. Add to this political unrest, a leading party in turmoil and a Prime Minister struggling to cling to power and it becomes easier to understand why the UK and ultimately the Pound has faced hardships of late.

However, at present the Canadian economy also seems to be struggling, which is another reason the Pound has managed to curb any further losses.

The main reason for the decline is drop in their export and a big jump in their trade balance figure (this is the amount of money being generated by exports compared to what they spend on imported goods & services). Due to Canada’s heavy reliance on this sector of their industry to boost economic growth, investors are concerned as to how their economy will fare over the coming months.

If you have an upcoming GBP or CAD currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

BOC Moneatry Policy decisions shows a strong eonomic back bone for Canada (Daniel Johnson)

Who is making the correct moves for their economy the BOE or the BOC?

There is little data of consequence released form both Canada and the UK this week. To put it bluntly I’m am of the opinion the Canadian economy is looking far healthier than the UK’s. We have seen two consecutive rate hikes from Canada in a row. A rarity from a central bank. It shows real faith in economic growth.

Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England (BOE) has recently hinted at  a rate hike and investors have bitten. Apparently there is a 77% chance of a rate hike on November 2nd. I am not so convinced, the data a hike is based on is misleading. Inflation at 2.9% is only healthy if average wage growth is at a similar pace. At present it is far from it and we have seen a decline to 2.1%. Unemployment is currently being lauded as the best levels since the 70’s, but we have only recently had zero hour contracts added to the equation.

OPEC Deal under threat

Canada’s primary export is oil and due to this oil price can cause fluctuations in Canadian dollar value. We have seen oil gain value of late and this has benefited CAD. It is important to keep up to date with an news form  the Organisation for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as there is currently a  fragile deal in place to limit global supply between it’s members. Saudi Arabia however has threatened to flood the market should any members breach the agreement which has happened in the past. If Saudi Arabia to carry through with their threat expect the Canadian Dollar to suffer as a result.

During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.