GBP/CAD rises following Theresa May speech (Joshua Privett)

Financial markets have had a jittery attitude towards the Pound since the announcement of Theresa May’s speech today on Thursday last week, with GBP/CAD dropping by over three cents in the wait for the speech to come out.

For anyone with a Canadian Dollar buying requirement this certainly hurt your wallet. Unfortunately markets were largely justified in their actions. In an interview the Sunday beforehand on Sky News the Pound experienced similarly heavy drops in its value when May was talking about hard Brexit aims to leave the European Union.

However, there was a morsel of information snuck into May’s speech which allowed the Pound to climb up dramatically. Reversing the losses from the previous week and then some.

This was Parliaments role in the Brexit debate. May hinted that Parliament would be involved in voting for the eventual deal reached with the EU, and in triggering Article 50 itself.

Financial markets, based on the voting split in Parliament and the comments made by MPs, see Parliament’s involvement as a moderating factor on any Government extremes which may come from the negotiations on the Brexit floor. As always financial markets prefer any leaning towards a gentle, or protracted Brexit, and any chance to hold onto elements of the status quo.

GBP/CAD as a result was boosted heavily today, and, depending on how the debate unfolds in Parliament this week, will likely see further movement on the pair.

Expectations are now for further rises on GBP/CAD this week, however, with so much still riding on politics, it is best to be in a position to move quickly just incase this fluid situation decides to change once more.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Canadian Dollar buying requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximising your currency return. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.

Markets Poised for Theresa May’s Brexit Speech! (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/CAD rates are now trading under 1.59, with the Pound finding little market support over recent weeks.

Sterling has slipped alarmingly in line with the on-going uncertainty surrounding the UK’s Brexit and with UK Prime Minister Theresa May scheduled to outline further plans in her speech today, we could see further pressure heaped on the Pound.

Despite May trying to alleviate some concerns following comments she made last week regarding a hard-line Brexit stance, the markets are still factoring in the likelihood that the UK will leave the single market completely in my opinion.

How events will unfold is impossible to predict but the CAD is benefiting from this uncertainty and as such, I would not be gambling on a recovery above 1.60 on GBP/CAD rates in the short-term.

Market uncertainty is a currencies killer and this is why the Pound is fighting an uphill battle. Talk of Brexit and how we will facilitate this is likely to drive investor confidence and in turn the Pound’s value for months if not years to come and therefore I am not anticipating a major upturn for Sterling in the short-term.

It may be that the Prime Minister is trying to give herself a strong bargaining position ahead of negotiations with the EU but either way we just don’t have enough information to hand to make a firm decision.

The Pound has been walking something a tightrope for some time now, with any improvement short-lived due to a lack of any real investor confidence. This is why I have been suggesting that clients take advantage of short-term opportunities because I just don’t feel that the Pound can make any sustainable improvement against the CAD under current market conditions.

If you have an upcoming GBP or CAD currency exchange to make and you are concerned by the increased market volatility of late, it may be wise to look at protecting the gains you’ve made, or limiting your losses with one of our forward contracts, rather than gamble on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market.

If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements ahead of your currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

What can we expect next for GBPCAD rates?

The Canadian dollar remains at very strong levels against the pound touching some of the best rates we have had since August 2013. At the moment we cannot be specific about the Brexit plans and this is weighing heavily on the pound and I think it will continue to do so. Most clients looking to buy or sell in the future are completely at the mercy of the currency markets and what comes up next. It is quite simply impossible to cover every angle on the currency markets. The best and safest strategy in such an uncertain market is I believe to adopt a more defensive strategy.

The pound is currently looking more like a risky currency because of the huge uncertainty over the Brexit. If you are looking to buy or sell the Canadian dollar with sterling it appears the Canadian dollar will remain strong and the pound weak. Most analysts expect the CAD will continue to strengthen as the US economy goes from strength to strength. As the Canadian’s largest trading partner the United State’s economic performance will help to trigger economic activity in Canada. Analysts expect the price of Oil to remain supported which will also help the Canadian dollar to remain firm since Canada exports lots of Oil and when the price of Oil rises the Canadian dollar rises too.

Expectations on GBPCAD which is already at close to 3 1/2 year lows remain more of the same. The UK’s Supreme Court case which is due any day is the biggest news immediately on the markets and we expect GBPCAD could touch up to 1.64 if the previous decision is upheld, 1.55 is the previous decision is overturned. The ‘good news’ for sterling is very much priced in to the current rates.

For more information and further assistance with the timing and planning of any deals please feel free to speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. I hope this information has been useful and I very much look forward to hearing from you and assisting in the future.

Thank you for reading.

Jonathan Watson

Sterling continues to decline as markets await Brexit decision, will the Pound continue to lose value? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound continues to come under pressure against the Canadian Dollar as foreign exchange markets continue to digest the much talked about interview of UK PM, Theresa May over the past weekend.

The markets have concluded that May’s comments alluded to a preference for a Hard Brexit, whereby the government will focus more on the control of immigration as opposed to making the retention of the UK’s access to the single market a priority.

Ever since the UK electorates vote in favour of a ‘Brexit’, markets have reacted positively to hints of a ‘Soft Brexit’ whereas the Pound has been sold off whenever talk of a ‘Hard Brexit’ has been in the headlines.

The current topic of discussion is the impending decision from the Supreme Court regarding whether or not the UK government can invoke Article 50 and begin the Brexit process at the end of March, which is their plan.

If the Supreme Court rules in favour of the Government, I’m expecting to see the Pound fall as the likely outcome is that Brexit will begin shortly. On the other hand I expect to see the Pound gain if the government loses it’s appeal as if they do, it’s likely that we can expect to see a softer Brexit.

The outcome of the appeal is expected to be released within the next 5 days or so but when exactly is hard to say, so if you wish to be kept up to date regarding the outcome feel free to get in touch.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Canadian Dollar, it’s worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

GBP CAD Under Pressure before Supreme Court Ruling (James Lovick)

GBP CAD remains very much under pressure not only from the Brexit perspective which is keeping the pressure on the pound but also as a result of the rise in the price of oil which is helping strengthen the Canadian dollar.

British politics still rules the direction of sterling exchange rates and GBP CAD should be in a for a very interesting period in the coming days and weeks. The Supreme Court ruling on whether UK Prime Minister Theresa May must consult Parliament or not, is expected imminently. The outcome may even arrive as soon as today and the pound in my view will receive an instant market reaction on the case.

If Theresa May wins the appeal then there is a strong chance the pound will fall very quickly across all of the major currencies. A so called ‘hard Brexit’ will begin to look even more likely that it does already and which presents an immediate risk for the pound, in the short term anyway as we approach the deadline of 31st March when Theresa May has indicated she will have invoked Article 50. The markets seem unsettled by such a prospect of withdrawing from the single market, as it stands now anyway. Those clients selling Canadian dollars are currently seeing some attractive levels for converting dollars into pounds,.

The Bank of Canada meet next week on Wednesday to decide on interest rates and there could be some market volatility. With the US Fed expected to continue to hike through 2017 the Bank of Canada is more likely to see what their neighbours are doing first before taking action. As such I would expect no change to interest rates next week.

Housing Price data for November from Canada is released tomorrow afternoon and could give some clues as to the health of the housing market.  

If you would like further information on buying or selling Canadian dollars and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP/CAD exchange rates beginning to recover ahead of tomorrow’s UK Data (Joshua Privett)

After what has been a very trying beginning to the week for Sterling to Canadian Dollar exchange rates, it seems the ongoing slides on Monday which continued into this morning have finally abated.

For those unaware, Sterling to Canadian Dollar exchange rates had taken a hefty dive on Monday following inflammatory comments made by Theresa May on a Sunday TV interview regarding her scope of the Brexit.

Her comments were vague, yes, but they were also enough to question some previous assumptions that the UK may be leaning towards a softer Brexit. Comments were made that we cannot take a piecemeal approach towards the EU, despite comments to the contrary stated repeatedly by other members of Government leading us towards a Brexit.

Brexit Secretary David Davis had stated that we would likely continue to pay for preferential access to the EU in a Parliamentary deposition not a month ago.

The ill defined structure off leadership on the Brexit, particularly with new departments being created makes things difficult for currency markets to see the truth behind such statements, and is why they tend towards caution.

The sell off of Sterling on Monday was what caused the fall on GBP/CAD, but this was beginning to change during today’s trading.

GBP/CAD began to rise ahead of tomorrow’s release of UK performance data, as the collection for markets to trade on is expected to be positive similar fortunes are found in the Pound.

The news will be coming out at 9am UK time, and hopefully will reverse some of the losses forced upon the Pound earlier in the week for Canadian Dollar buyers.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a CAD buying requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximising your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.

GBP/CAD Rates Fall Following Theresa May’s Comments (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/CAD rates have taken a sharp downturn over the past week, with Sterling losing over four cents in the market.

This negative trend was intensified over the weekend following comments made by UK Prime Minister Theresa May regarding the UK’s upcoming exit from the EU.

She stated the UK would look towards a “hard Brexit”, which ultimately means that we will be cutting nearly all ties with the EU. This has caused investors to panic and the markets have reacted accordingly with the recent loses against the CAD a result of this.

Despite these obvious fears May also mentioned she wanted the best deal for the UK in terms of leaving the EU but stated that we will not be keeping part membership we were going to break off completely. This means that trade deals and immigration rights will need to be renegotiated and this causes a huge amount of market uncertainty.

Market uncertainty is a currencies killer and this is why the Pound is fighting an uphill battle. Talk of Brexit and how we will facilitate this is likely to drive investor confidence and in turn the Pound’s value for months if not years to come.

Looking at the Canadian economy and it will be interesting to see what prospective additional trade deals or access they will have to the US market following  Donald Trump’s appointment as US President in 10 days’ time. Due to the fact the CAD is a commodity based currency, any additional trade deals will likely boost the Canadian economy and ultimately the CAD and we could see GBP/CAD rates fall further towards 1.50 over the coming months.

However, commodity based currencies are liable to more aggressive market fluctuations and if Theresa May announces any positive news regarding how we will facilitate our Brexit, this could bring back some investor confidence and the CAD’s value could fall just as quickly as it has climbed.

My overall feeling is that due the on-going global uncertainty I would not be prepared to gamble on the current market and would look to protect any short to medium-term Sterling transfers by way of a forward contract.

If you have an upcoming Sterling or Canadian Dollar currency exchange to make and you are looking for the best exchange rates available, then please feel free to contact us on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

We can provide key market information and analysis ahead of any transfer, whilst keeping you up to date with all the latest market movements. We help our client to time their exchange to maximise the market value available and have awards for our exchange rates and service.

If you would like to contact am directly I can be emailed on mtv@currencies.co.uk

 

GBP/CAD – Sterling Falls in Value (Daniel Johnson)

Brexit Fears cause the Pound to drop

Theresa May stated over the weekend there was the probability of a hard brexit and the Pound has fell against the Canadian Dollar as a result. I am not so convinced. The key market mover on the horizon is the Supreme Court Judgement on whether parliament will get to vote on the triggering of Article 50.  If parliament do get the vote there is the probability of a soft brexit which should see the pound strengthen.

A hard brexit would mean trade negotiations would be elongated. Sir Ivan Rogers recently resigned from his position as UK ambassador to the EU due to the unrealistic time scale put in place for an exit. Estimated at two years. Sir Ivan think it would take nearer 10 years.

Implications of a Hard and Soft Brexit

Hard Brexit

  • Losing access to the single market
  • New laws within UK territory
  • Trade Negotiations will be independent
  • Total Control over immigration
  • World Trade Organisations (WTO) rules will come into play

Soft Brexit

Free access for EU nationals who wish to work in the UK

  • Arrangements will remain similar to current EU rules
  • British exports would not need border checks
  • Freedom of people,capital,goods and services.

Data Releases from Canada of consequence

This week keep an eye on Housing starts on Wednesday afternoon which could cause a fluctuation on GBP/CAD. On Thursday we will then see the new housing prices index which could be another cause of volatility for GBP/CAD.

Oil Pricing

It would be wise to watch oil pricing if you are performing a trade involving the Canadian Dollar. It is Canada’s main export and pricing can cause big swings on the exchange. The recent OPEC deal to limit supply does bode well for the Canadian Dollar so we could well see Canadian Dollar strength.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. I will prepare a no obligation, individual trading strategy and I will also be prepared to provide a comparison against any competitors rates. Please do get in touch by e-mailing me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

 

What can we expect for GBPCAD rates in 2017?

The pound is likely to struggle in 2017 but what about the Canadian dollar? The GBPCAD rate has been volatile in 2016 and I expect this to continue in 2017. Two of the main issues on this currency pairing will remain in 2017, that is the Brexit and the price of Oil. These two issues will continue to dominate and influence the GBPCAD exchange rate. Understanding just what happens on these events will help determine what kind of exchange rates we see moving forward. I think anyone looking to buy or sell Canadian dollars with pounds should be closely monitoring the market (or asking us to) as things might suddenly change quickly.

The early part of this year will I believe be shaped largely by the outlook for the UK’s Brexit vote. If we see the Supreme Court decision uphold the previous High Court decision sterling should rally but I do not believe this will be sustainable. Once the decision is apparent we then get a whole new can of worms opened as the detail of Brexit needs assessing. On the Canadian dollar side I think the price of Oil will be a key feature to influence the price of the Canadian dollar. I expect that the OPEC (Organisation Petroleum Exporting Countries) agreement will not hold up and we will see the Canadian dollar weakening.

In terms of the rates that we can expect we will therefore be likely to see a range of between 1.60 and 1.80 this year. My personal prediction is we will see the pound rise a little soon before we lose ground in the coming weeks. This will take us back to 1.60 territory. It will then not be until much later in the year when the difficulties of the OPEC deal become apparent that the Canadian dollar will weaken taking us eventually back to 1.80.

If you have a GBPCAD transfer we are in for a tough year with no clear direction at this stage. I have a loose prediction I have outlined above but this will be subject to change. The best way to keep abreast of developments is to drop an email to jmw@currencies.co.uk  and I can alert you to any changes in the market.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and offering some insight into the market and to what you might expect in 2017.

Sterling drops against the Canadian Dollar as oil prices continue to strengthen, will this trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

Despite some upbeat construction figures for the UK being released today, the Pound has weakened against the Canadian Dollar with the pair trading in the 1.63’s for the most part of today’s trading session.

Against almost all other major currency pairs the Pound has gained value after the better than expected construction figures (CIPS UK Construction PMI for December) gave the currency a boost in the early hours of today.

Despite the positive day for Sterling against most pairs the Loonie has bucked the trend and this can be put down to the currency’s relationship with oil. CAD is what’s known as a commodity currency and its value is often tied to the fortunes of oil as it’s one of Canada’s largest exports.

The reason behind oil’s improving fortunes can be put down to OPEC’s planned oil output cap in order to reduce oversupply of the commodity. OPEC stands for the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the group is often in the news due to disputes regarding oil output.

Those with a currency exchange to make should keep a close eye on oil’s value and the sentiment surrounding the commodity as it’s likely to be the biggest driver of CAD exchange rates in the upcoming weeks and months.

One of the main movers of the Pound is the upcoming supreme court decision regarding the UK governments plans to begin the Brexit process by the end of March. Feel free to get in contact if you wish to discuss this matter in further detail.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and and the Canadian Dollar, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk  in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.