Canadian dollar exchange rates choppy on Trade Wars and Oil!

The Canadian dollar has been struggling under a series of pressures following the latest news that has seen big fluctuations in the value of the price of Oil and therefore the Canadian dollar. Expectations are high for some important developments at the upcoming OPEC (Organisation Petroleum Exporting Countries) this Friday which has seen big changes in the price of Oil and assets, commodities and currencies connected to it.

The Canadian dollar is also susceptible to comments from Donald Trump regarding the Trade Wars which will also have a direct influence on the Canadian dollar since the Canadian economy is so closely linked to the US economy and also the global economy. Since Canada is a net exporter, i.e. it sells more overseas than it buys from overseas, global events can have a high impact on the performance of the economy and the currency.

Clients looking to trade Canadian dollars into pounds could find some useful news today in the form of the latest Bank of England meeting where we will get the latest view points and sentiments on UK interest rates and also the economic outlook for the UK. The potential for sterling weakness is high since from my perspective there is little reason to be optimistic from the Bank of England’s perspective.

Any escalation of the Trade War scenario will weigh on the Loonie and could see GBPCAD into the higher 1.70’s. Otherwise any struggles from OPEC to import higher quotas and a dovish (soft) Bank of England would see us closer in the lower 1.70’s.

If you have a transfer to consider in the future why not get in touch to discuss your position, please contact me Jonathan Watson on to discuss further.

Trade Wars and Oil drive the Loonie!

The Loonie dollar has been quite volatile lately as the price of Oil is volatile ahead of the OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) meeting on Friday. With the Russians and Saudis looking for a hike in output there is a concern that the price of oil may come down which would see the Loonie dollar lose value.

In recent weeks there have been many analysts predicting a rise in the price of Oil but this potential new would actually see the price of oil fall. Clients buying or selling Canadian dollars would be very well placed to be making plans ahead of the OPEC meeting, other points they must also consider are the potential swings on the currency from the Trade Wars.

Donald Trump has proven once again he can move financial markets with his rhetoric over trade tariffs on China, we have seen the Canadian dollar losing value on some of this news as markets debate the fallout from this situation. Expectations would be that any escalation of issues would weigh on the Canadian dollar since Canada does a huge amount of business with the US and relies on its very strong exports of commodities including lumber and oil.

Clients looking to buy or sell GBPCAD pairing would do well to focus on the news we are getting from the Bank of England on Thursday regarding interest rates. Whilst the Bank are unlikely to change any policy we could be looking at some changes in the longer term outlook on interest rates. Personally, I would suggest clients are very aware we could see the pound falling if the Bank of England is not too upbeat.

If you wish to learn more please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing


Trump threatens to withdraw form NAFTA

NATFA Talks in Jeopardy

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is currently in renegotiation due to Trump’s view that “it is the worst trade deal in history.”  The deal is between Mexico, Canada and the US. There were hopes a deal would be in place before the Mexican election on 1st July, but this now seems unlikely. Canada is heavily reliant on the US purchasing it’s exports and a change in the current trade deal will hurt the Canadian economy. The outcome on talks will have a serious effect on CAD value.

Talks have not been going well of late with US and Canadian relations proving to be hostile. Chief negotiator, Peter Navarro recently had to apologise after stating that Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau deserves a special place in hell. The chances of a trade war remain high, which does not bode well for the Canadian Dollar.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at I look forward to hearing from you.

US Interest Rate Decision, EU Withdrawal Bill and Canada awarded the World Cup for 2026

The good news to come out of Canada this afternoon is that they alongside the US and Mexico have been awarded the World Cup in 2026 after the vote was announced in Moscow earlier today.

This is great news for the country and football fans alike but with Donald Trump saying that there needs to be changes to the NAFTA agreement it is rather ironic that the three countries have agreed and been pitching for a long time to host the World Cup together in eight years time.

Tonight the US Federal Reserve will be meeting to announce their latest interest rate decision and it is almost a certainty that they will be hiking rates for the second time this year and the seventh time since December 2015.

Previously when the Fed have increased interest rates this has weakened the Canadian Dollar as Canada is unlikely to be following such an aggressive monetary policy cycle.

However, as tonight’s decision is arguably already priced in we may not see too much movement for the Canadian Dollar vs the Pound.

Indeed, turning the focus towards what is happening in the UK at the moment the EU Withdrawal Bill has been making headline news with the SNP member leaving the House of Commons after a big disagreement with the Speaker.

Yet again the topic of Brexit has caused the government embarrassment and I think this is why we have seen GBPCAD exchange rates fall during today.

UK Retail Sales are due tomorrow morning and as this sector has been performing badly recently and some high street stores have announced job cuts and store closures I think we could see a negative report tomorrow which could cause Sterling to fall further against the Canadian Dollar.

If you would like a free quote when transferring Canadian Dollars then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian

Why has the Canadian Dollar lost value today, and where to next for CAD exchange rates? (Joseph Wright)

The Loonie has lost value during today’s trading session, falling against the US Dollar even if only slightly. At present the CAD to USD exchange rate is trading around its lowest point so far this year, and at the time of writing there doesn’t appear to be much support at 0.77 cents.

There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Canadian Dollar at the moment, as the trade negotiations and plans for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) are still up in the air for now.

Tensions between Canada and the US appear to be strained at the moment and especially after the heated comments between the two after the G7 meeting last week. Uncertainty won’t play into the Loonie’s hands especially as so much of its trade is with the US and it has an export driven economy.

Oil prices have also been softening recently which has worked against the Canadian Dollars value. The Iraqi oil minister recently failed to confirm whether OPEC will decide to boost output in future.

There aren’t any major news releases out of Canada between now and the end of the week, but if you wish to be notified in the event of a major market move do feel free to register your interest with me as there’s plenty of news out elsewhere this week!

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

NAFTA talks drag on which causes the Canadian Dollar to weaken against the Pound

The Canadian Dollar has once again come under pressure against the Pound as the three countries involved in the NAFTA negotiations are not close to a deal yet.

US Congress appears to be running out of time at the moment in order to approve a new deal and with the Mexican election just over 3 weeks away I think it will be difficult to get things organised in the short term and this uncertainty is causing a problem for the Canadian Dollar.

According to one source Trump is considering separate talks with Mexico and Canada but the problem is that if Mexico and Canada do not work together then this could reduce their negotiating power together with the US.

There are still a lot of differences between what the three countries want to try and achieve and with time running out in order for Congress to approve the deal this may carry on until 2019.

The uncertainty surrounding trade is not boding well for Canada and although oil prices have risen recently which has helped the CAD the problem of NAFTA if is it left to drag on could seriously harm the future of the Canadian Dollar vs Sterling.

Turning the focus back to the UK, on Friday we have the latest release from the NIESR which will measure GDP for the last three months.

This indicator, although not the official release, is usually very accurate and if we see another poor performance for GDP then this could cause the Pound to wobble and with Canadian unemployment due on Friday afternoon at 130pm we could have a busy end to the week for GBPCAD exchange rates.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money when buying or selling Canadian Dollar then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian

Canadian Dollar slips as Trump makes new NAFTA surprise!

The Canadian Dollar has lost value today after a surprise comment from the US’ White House chief economic adviser.

Larry Kudlow is chief economic adviser to the White House so he has a close relationship with US President Donald Trump. Today Kudlow confirmed that Trump wishes to negotiate separate bilateral deals with Mexico and Canada. The reason for the market reaction is due to this coming as a surprise, and also the change it will bring if it goes ahead. The current plan in place covers all three countries, so this would be a change.

Talks surrounding NAFTA (The North American Free Trade Agreement) have been ongoing for a while now, and this approach will resolve the issues faster according to the White House.

The Loonie is likely to continue to come under pressure whilst this drags on, due to the uncertainty is creates for the currency and the Canadian economy.

Perhaps the busiest day for CAD exchange rates will be this Wednesday when a raft of data is released, mostly the health of the import/export sector in Canada. Thursday could also see some movement as the governor of the Bank of Canada will be speaking. Markets could react if he touches on future monetary policy plans, so its worth being aware of this and do feel free to get in touch if you wish to discuss it in further detail.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Bank of Canada interest rate decision and the impact on GBPCAD rates

The Bank of Canada are due to be meeting later this evening to announce their latest interest rate decision.

The expectation is to keep interest rates on hold so I don’t think we’ll see any changes in monetary policy, however, the important part of the day will be the accompanying statement which will provide us with evidence as to why they have decided this month’s policy.

The Canadian Dollar has been gradually improving against the Pound during the last few months but we could start to see a reversal of fortune as oil prices have started to fall.

Oil is one of Canada’s main exports and with a 9% fall compared to last week I think we could start to see a problem for the Canadian Dollar coming soon.

With the US Federal Reserve expected to continue on their path of raising interest rates in the near future the disparity between the two if Canada continues to keep rates on hold could see problems further down the line causing Canadian Dollar weakness.

There is also the ongoing uncertainty of NAFTA as Canada send approximately three quarters of its exports south of the border to the US so if the talks breakdown or tariffs are changed then again this could cause problems longer term for the Canadian Dollar.

Therefore, if you’re considering selling Canadian Dollars it may be worth getting this organised in the short term before GBPCAD rates start to climb again.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident of being able to offer you bank beating exchange rates as well as helping you with the timing of your currency transfer.

If you would like a free quote then email me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian

Canadian Dollar Supported ahead of Bank of Canada Meeting

The Canadian dollar continues to find support as the price of oil climbs higher and the concerns over the renegotiation of the NAFTA agreement have softened in recent weeks. Ever since US President Donald Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal the price of oil has been inching higher and this is helping strengthen the Canadian dollar. There is currently a good opportunity for selling Canadian dollars.

As a commodity currency and net exporter of oil the Canadian dollar tends to strengthen when oil prices rally. The Canadian dollar is likely to see further gains on the back of any other geopolitical tensions which are abundant at present. The cancelled summit between the US and North Korea also could see tensions escalate creating added uncertainty in the region and oil price fluctuations. NAFTA is also looking slightly more optimistic at present as the new deal continues to be renegotiated and investment appears to be heading back towards Canada.

The Bank of Canada meet tomorrow and this meeting should be keenly monitored for clues as to the path of future interest rate hikes. The central bank are keen to hike again but are reluctant to do so at this time with the uncertainties over NAFTA. Governor Stephen Poloz was cautious at the last meeting and I would expect a similar approach at this meeting. There have also been some concerns over business confidence in Canada which could temp the bank to pause for thought.


The pound has slipped further against the Canadian dollar as general uncertainty over Brexit continues to weigh on sterling exchange rates. Things should become very interesting with a vote in the House of Commons expected in the coming weeks which could see a high degree of political uncertainty. If the government is unable to reject the amendments which have been put forward by the House of Lords then there could be the prospect of a leadership challenge or worse still another general election.

For more information on the Canadian dollar and for assistance in making transfers at the best rates then please contact me at

Could UK Retail Sales help to increase the Pound vs the Canadian Dollar?

The Canadian Dollar has continued to strengthen during the course of this week against the Pound and it appears to be following the same trend as what is also happening with GBPUSD rates.

Oil prices have been on the rise and the highest they have been for a few years and as Canada is such a huge oil exporter this is likely to provide the Canadian Dollar with a lot of strength as it should in theory help to reduce the Trade Balance and increase Canadian GDP.

As we turn the focus to what is happening in the UK we have the release of UK Retail Sales due out in the morning and I think we could see some improvement in the value of Sterling vs the Canadian Dollar tomorrow if the figures come out better than expected.

I think as the previous release was very low owing to the ‘beast of the east’ I think we could see a rather large increase compared to last month and therefore this is why I think we could see a good day ahead for the Pound vs a number of different currencies including vs the Canadian Dollar.

We end the week with UK GDP figures on Friday morning and as with retail sales a positive release could provide the Pound with a welcome lift so if you’re looking at buying Canadian Dollars then it may be worth seeing what happens towards the end of the week.

If you would like further information about what is happening with the Pound vs the Canadian Dollar or if you’d like a free quote to buy or sell Canadian Dollars then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to offer you bank beating exchange rates.

Tom Holian